Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Malvern · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Malvern are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWD), averaging 2.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Box Hill are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Malvern hold a 16.9-point power-rating edge (72.0 v 55.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 61.9% in the Victoria Premier League 2, while Malvern holds the strongest overall chance at 62% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Malvern
Probability
61.9%
Model confidence
61.9%
Malvern has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20