Malvern Townvs
Yate Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 10/13/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Yate Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Malvern Town 3-2 Yate Town
Original prediction
Yate Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 41.6% | 35.9% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.6% | 23.8% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 32.8% | 40.3% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.2–28%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Yate Town
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Yate Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40