Malvern Townvs
Gloucester City
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 9/22/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gloucester City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Malvern Town 5-2 Gloucester City
Original prediction
Gloucester City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.20 | 21.4% | 24.3% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 23.3% | 22.6% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 55.3% | 53.2% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Gloucester City
Probability
53.2%
Model confidence
53.2%
Gloucester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 16 · avg 0.80/3.20
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80