Malvern Townvs
Chippenham Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 8/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Malvern Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Malvern Town 1-2 Chippenham Town
Original prediction
Malvern Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.67 | 33.9% | 39.0% | 5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 25.9% | 24.5% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.25 | 40.2% | 36.5% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Malvern Town
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Malvern Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20