Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Malta · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Malta 1-1 Gibraltar
Original prediction
Malta
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.26 | 73.9% | 50.9% | -23.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.12 | 18.2% | 25.9% | 7.6 pts |
| Away | 11.81 | 7.9% | 23.3% | 15.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.12 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Malta
Probability
50.9%
Model confidence
50.9%
Malta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MaltaWWWLL
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
GibraltarDDWWL
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
MaltaGibraltar
66.7Attack0.0
66.7Defence100.0
100.0Form33.3
80.3Power45.3
1.52xG0.97