Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Malta · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Malta 1-0 Andorra
Original prediction
Malta
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 57.9% | 47.4% | -10.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.0% | 28.3% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 6.55 | 14.1% | 24.3% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Malta
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Malta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MaltaDWWWL
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AndorraLDLLW
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
MaltaAndorra
50.0Attack16.7
66.7Defence66.7
66.7Form16.7
64.8Power36.5
1.44xG0.91