Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Twente · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Malmo FF are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Twente are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Twente hold a 2.8-point power-rating edge (33.7 v 36.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.6% in the UEFA Europa League, while Twente holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Twente
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Twente has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40