Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sirius · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Malmo FF are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Sirius are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLD), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Sirius hold a 28.1-point power-rating edge (52.8 v 80.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.8% in the Allsvenskan, while Sirius holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 73% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sirius
Probability
58.8%
Model confidence
58.8%
Sirius has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80