Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mallorca · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mallorca 2-0 Sabadell
Original prediction
Mallorca
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 50.5% | 38.5% | -12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 28.1% | 29.2% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 4.32 | 21.5% | 32.4% | 10.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Mallorca
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Mallorca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MallorcaDWLWD
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
SabadellWWDDW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
MallorcaSabadell
50.0Attack100.0
50.0Defence33.3
50.0Form100.0
50.0Power80.3
1.32xG1.40