Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mallorca · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Mallorca 0-0 Almeria, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Mallorca 0-1 Almeria
Original prediction
Mallorca
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 45.4% | 37.7% | -7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.9% | 30.5% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.60 | 25.8% | 31.9% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.7 pts
Projected Score
Mallorca 0–0 Almeria
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Mallorca
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Mallorca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MallorcaWWDWL
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
AlmeriaWWWLL
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
MallorcaAlmeria
44.4Attack55.6
88.9Defence77.8
72.2Form66.7
69.0Power66.9
0.97xG0.93