Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Riffa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Malkiya 1-1 Al Riffa
Original prediction
Al Riffa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.65 | 10.5% | 20.8% | 10.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.80 | 18.9% | 24.2% | 5.2 pts |
| Away | 1.29 | 70.6% | 55.0% | -15.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.80 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Al Riffa
Probability
55.0%
Model confidence
55.0%
Al Riffa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MalkiyaLLLLL
GF 0 · GA 8 · avg 0.00/1.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Al RiffaDWWWW
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MalkiyaAl Riffa
0.0Attack77.8
44.4Defence88.9
0.0Form77.8
19.2Power79.5
0.93xG1.78