Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Najma · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Malkiya 0-1 Al Najma
Original prediction
Al Najma
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.29 | 27.7% | 34.3% | 6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.9% | 27.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.09 | 43.4% | 37.9% | -5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Al Najma
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Al Najma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MalkiyaLLLWW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 3/5
Al NajmaLWWWL
GF 11 · GA 13 · avg 2.20/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
MalkiyaAl Najma
0.0Attack66.7
0.0Defence0.0
0.0Form0.0
7.0Power23.7
1.51xG1.50