Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Malisheva · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Malisheva 3-1 Gjilani
Original prediction
Malisheva
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 39.1% | 40.9% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 27.9% | 27.2% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.73 | 33.0% | 31.8% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Malisheva
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
Malisheva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MalishevaWDWLW
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GjilaniDWWLW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MalishevaGjilani
100.0Attack77.8
77.8Defence66.7
77.8Form77.8
81.4Power75.3
1.56xG1.22