Malivs
Cape Verde Islands
COMPLETEDWorld · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 9/25/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mali · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Mali 1-0 Cape Verde Islands, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Mali 3-1 Cape Verde Islands
Original prediction
Mali
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 44.7% | 47.9% | 3.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.86 | 31.7% | 28.8% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.85 | 23.6% | 23.3% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Projected Score
Mali 1–0 Cape Verde Islands
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Mali
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Mali has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MaliLDDLW
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
Cape Verde IslandsWWDDD
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MaliCape Verde Islands
75.0Attack25.0
83.3Defence83.3
75.0Form58.3
76.0Power57.5
1.40xG0.71