Maldon & Tiptreevs
Welling United
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Isthmian · 10/6/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Welling United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-3 (10%), 1-3 (9%), 0-4 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Maldon & Tiptree 0-1 Welling United
Original prediction
Welling United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.62 | 19.6% | 15.7% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.19 | 21.6% | 18.0% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 1.54 | 58.9% | 66.3% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–310%
- 2.1–39%
- 3.0–49%
Predicted outcome
Welling United
Probability
66.3%
Model confidence
66.3%
Welling United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 19 · avg 1.00/3.80
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40