Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lebanon · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Maldives 0-6 Lebanon
Original prediction
Lebanon
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 41.58 | 2.3% | 23.4% | 21.1 pts |
| Draw | 11.18 | 8.4% | 23.6% | 15.2 pts |
| Away | 1.05 | 89.3% | 53.0% | -36.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-36.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Lebanon
Probability
53.0%
Model confidence
53.0%
Lebanon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MaldivesLLDLL
GF 1 · GA 13 · avg 0.20/2.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
LebanonDWLWW
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
MaldivesLebanon
6.7Attack33.3
13.3Defence54.2
6.7Form33.3
14.2Power42.6
1.03xG1.37