Malawivs
South Sudan
COMPLETEDWorld · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 9/25/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
South Sudan · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Malawi 2-1 South Sudan
Original prediction
South Sudan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 55.9% | 35.6% | -20.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.4% | 27.6% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 5.45 | 16.7% | 36.8% | 20.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
South Sudan
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
South Sudan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00