Malagavs
Villarreal
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/17/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Villarreal · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (8%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Malaga 1-3 Villarreal
Original prediction
Villarreal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.72 | 25.7% | 34.6% | 9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 25.1% | 26.1% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.94 | 49.3% | 39.3% | -10.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.94 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Villarreal
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Villarreal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20