Malagavs
Real Sociedad
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 10/18/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Sociedad · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Malaga 2-5 Real Sociedad
Original prediction
Real Sociedad
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.14 | 30.1% | 28.5% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.9% | 25.2% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 43.0% | 46.3% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Real Sociedad
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
Real Sociedad has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60