Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Malaga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Malaga are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Fulham are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWDLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Fulham hold a 4.7-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 50.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.0% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Malaga holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Malaga
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
11.0%
Malaga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40