Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Espanyol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Malaga 1-1 Espanyol
Original prediction
Espanyol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.86 | 33.4% | 27.7% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 29.5% | 26.8% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 37.0% | 45.5% | 8.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Espanyol
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Espanyol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MalagaLLDDL
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
EspanyolLLWDL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
MalagaEspanyol
14.3Attack47.6
42.9Defence52.4
14.3Form33.3
27.2Power45.0
0.96xG1.50