Malacatecovs
Guastatoya
COMPLETEDGuatemala · Liga Nacional · 10/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guastatoya · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Malacateco 2-0 Guastatoya
Original prediction
Guastatoya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 48.8% | 25.0% | -23.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.9% | 24.2% | -4.7 pts |
| Away | 4.06 | 22.3% | 50.9% | 28.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
28.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.1–112%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Guastatoya
Probability
50.9%
Model confidence
50.9%
Guastatoya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00