Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maitland · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Maitland are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WWLLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Valentine are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Maitland hold a 20.0-point power-rating edge (60.0 v 40.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.6% in the Northern NSW NPL, while Maitland holds the strongest overall chance at 72% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Maitland
Probability
71.6%
Model confidence
10.6%
Maitland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80