Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maitland · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Maitland are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Valentine are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Maitland hold a 20.0-point power-rating edge (60.0 v 40.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 69.8% in the Northern NSW NPL, while Maitland holds the strongest overall chance at 70% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Maitland
Probability
69.8%
Model confidence
69.8%
Maitland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60