Maia Lidadorvs
Maria da Fonte
COMPLETEDPortugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A · 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maia Lidador · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Maia Lidador 1-1 Maria da Fonte
Original prediction
Maia Lidador
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.4% | 40.6% | 0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.1% | 29.3% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 31.5% | 30.1% | -1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.23 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–014%
Predicted outcome
Maia Lidador
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Maia Lidador has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.20/0.80
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40