Magpiesvs
Europa Point
COMPLETEDGibraltar · Premier Division · 10/16/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Magpies · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Magpies 6-1 Europa Point
Original prediction
Magpies
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 09:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 49.2% | 51.5% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 22.1% | 21.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.13 | 28.8% | 26.8% | -2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.83 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Magpies
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Magpies has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80