GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 5/3/2023, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Magallanes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Magallanes are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Cesar Vallejo are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDLDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Cesar Vallejo hold a 3.3-point power-rating edge (34.0 v 37.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.5% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Magallanes holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Magallanes

Probability

38.5%

Model confidence

38.5%

Magallanes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

MagallanesLLLWD

GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00

BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Cesar VallejoDDLDW

GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MagallanesCesar Vallejo
44.4Attack52.4
27.8Defence19.0
22.2Form33.3
34.0Power37.3
1.81xG1.69
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