Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mafra · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mafra 2-2 Tirsense
Original prediction
Mafra
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 60.1% | 48.4% | -11.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 23.6% | 25.1% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 5.50 | 16.3% | 26.6% | 10.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.79 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Mafra
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
Mafra has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MafraLWWLD
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
TirsenseWLWWL
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
MafraTirsense
100.0Attack66.7
66.7Defence66.7
66.7Form66.7
73.4Power68.0
1.98xG1.40