Mafravs
Santa Clara
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 10/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Clara · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mafra 3-2 Santa Clara
Original prediction
Santa Clara
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.61 | 16.4% | 35.7% | 19.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 23.5% | 25.9% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.53 | 60.1% | 38.4% | -21.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Santa Clara
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Santa Clara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40