Mafravs
CF Os Belenenses
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga 3 · 10/11/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CF Os Belenenses · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mafra 2-2 CF Os Belenenses
Original prediction
CF Os Belenenses
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 15:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.95 | 30.8% | 28.7% | -2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.3% | 29.6% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 40.0% | 41.7% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.10 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
CF Os Belenenses
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
CF Os Belenenses has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 13 · GA 2 · avg 2.60/0.40