Madureiravs
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Rio · 9/23/2026, 5:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Madureira 0-0 Sampaio Corrêa RJ, with an exact score probability of 28%.
Prediction record
Final result
Madureira 0-2 Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.49 | 35.7% | 30.0% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 2.76 | 32.3% | 34.1% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.77 | 32.1% | 35.8% | 3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Projected Score
Madureira 0–0 Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Exact score probability: 28%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
34.1%
Model confidence
35.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MadureiraDDLDW
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
Sampaio Corrêa RJDWLWD
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
MadureiraSampaio Corrêa RJ
28.6Attack33.3
66.7Defence81.0
38.1Form66.7
47.4Power62.9
0.57xG0.75