Madagascarvs
Tanzania
COMPLETEDWorld · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 9/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Madagascar · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Madagascar 1-1 Tanzania
Original prediction
Madagascar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 39.2% | 39.3% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.85 | 31.8% | 29.4% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.12 | 29.1% | 31.3% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.85 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Madagascar
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Madagascar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80