Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Macva · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 14 October 2026 at 08:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 60.5% | 44.0% | -16.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.7% | 27.4% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 6.10 | 14.8% | 28.6% | 13.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Macva
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Macva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MacvaLDDLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
NapredakDWDWD
GF 4 · GA 0 · avg 0.80/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
MacvaNapredak
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.52xG1.30