Super LigaSuper Liga
Sunday, 26 July 2026Last updated 12:35
Macva

Macva

Home
L
13
Full time
FK Partizan

FK Partizan

Away
L
GoalVio prediction
47% confidence
Macva(29%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Macva
29%
Draw
24%
FK Partizan
47%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Macva
34
FK Partizan
9
Defence
Macva
27
FK Partizan
6
Momentum
Macva
0
FK Partizan
0
Danger (xG)
Macva
0.90
FK Partizan
0.00
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.15 xG for Macva and 1.51 xG for FK Partizan — meaningful and strong attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-2 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.37), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.66 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 1-2 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. The xG distribution places the most weight on scorelines that clear 2.5, though the margin above the threshold is not large.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Macva's Attack Score (34) vs FK Partizan's Defensive Stability (6) and FK Partizan's attack (9) vs Macva's defence (27) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Macva)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (FK Partizan)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Macva)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (FK Partizan)
2.70
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
MacvaMacva
LL
FK PartizanFK Partizan
L

Probability breakdown

47% confidence
Macva29%
Draw24%
FK Partizan47%

FK Partizan leads with 47% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

FK Partizan Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-2

Macva take on FK Partizan in Super Liga.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.51 expected goals for FK Partizan against 1.15 for Macva — a marginal but consistent advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk Macva have won 0 of their last 10 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While FK Partizan carry the stronger underlying metrics, Macva's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

FK Partizan are generating a consistent xG advantage — 1.51 projected against 1.15 for Macva. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.37 is the clearest signal in the model that FK Partizan are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: FK Partizan's projection depends on converting chances into goals. If Macva defend deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter, the match could end differently than the model projects — particularly if FK Partizan fail to score in the first half.

Risk factors

  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.37 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Recent form

Macva

Macva

L
@ FK Crvena Zvezda
17 Jul 2026
05
L
vs Naftagas
14 Jul 2026
12
FK Partizan

FK Partizan

L
@ CSKA 1948
29 Jun 2026
03

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Macva vs FK Partizan?

GoalVio's model predicts Macva to win with 47% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Macva vs FK Partizan?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Macva vs FK Partizan?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Macva vs FK Partizan?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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