Machida Zelviavs
Tochigi City
COMPLETEDJapan · Emperor Cup · 9/23/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Machida Zelvia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Machida Zelvia 2-1 Tochigi City
Original prediction
Machida Zelvia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 66.4% | 50.8% | -15.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.72 | 19.2% | 23.3% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 6.32 | 14.3% | 25.9% | 11.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Machida Zelvia
Probability
50.8%
Model confidence
50.8%
Machida Zelvia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40