Machida Zelviavs
Kashiwa Reysol
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/20/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Machida Zelvia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Machida Zelvia 2-4 Kashiwa Reysol
Original prediction
Machida Zelvia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 38.3% | 54.4% | 16.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.2% | 22.6% | -5.5 pts |
| Away | 2.78 | 33.6% | 23.0% | -10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Machida Zelvia
Probability
54.4%
Model confidence
54.4%
Machida Zelvia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60