Machida Zelviavs
Avispa Fukuoka
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 10/18/2026, 7:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Machida Zelvia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Machida Zelvia 3-0 Avispa Fukuoka
Original prediction
Machida Zelvia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 50.7% | 68.1% | 17.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 27.3% | 18.6% | -8.8 pts |
| Away | 4.27 | 21.9% | 13.3% | -8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Machida Zelvia
Probability
68.1%
Model confidence
68.1%
Machida Zelvia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20