Portugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Machico · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Machico 4-0 Florgrade
Original prediction
Machico
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 47.4% | 38.8% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.7% | 30.4% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.78 | 23.9% | 30.9% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Machico
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Machico has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 0.80/0.20