Macclesfieldvs
Scarborough Athletic
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Macclesfield · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Macclesfield 2-2 Scarborough Athletic
Original prediction
Macclesfield
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 48.9% | 40.2% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.0% | 27.7% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 26.1% | 32.1% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.62 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Macclesfield
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Macclesfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40