Maccabi Tel Avivvs
Hapoel Tel Aviv
COMPLETEDIsrael · Ligat Ha'al · 9/14/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maccabi Tel Aviv · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Maccabi Tel Aviv 4-1 Hapoel Tel Aviv
Original prediction
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 43.3% | 40.4% | -2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.0% | 26.1% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.97 | 30.7% | 33.6% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Maccabi Tel Aviv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20