Maccabi Tel Avivvs
FC Lugano
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa Conference League · 8/27/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Lugano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-1 FC Lugano
Original prediction
FC Lugano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 41.6% | 28.9% | -12.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.6% | 25.9% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.91 | 31.8% | 45.3% | 13.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.47 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
FC Lugano
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
FC Lugano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 21 · GA 4 · avg 4.20/0.80