Maccabi Herzliyavs
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Leumit · 10/9/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maccabi Herzliya · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Maccabi Herzliya 1-2 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Original prediction
Maccabi Herzliya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 49.5% | 44.0% | -5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 26.9% | 27.9% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.81 | 23.6% | 28.1% | 4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Maccabi Herzliya
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Maccabi Herzliya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60