Maccabi Ashdodvs
Shimshon Tel Aviv
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 10/18/2026, 5:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shimshon Tel Aviv · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Maccabi Ashdod 0-1 Shimshon Tel Aviv
Original prediction
Shimshon Tel Aviv
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.74 | 32.2% | 29.1% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.93 | 30.1% | 26.7% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 37.7% | 44.2% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Shimshon Tel Aviv
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Shimshon Tel Aviv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20