Maccabi Ashdodvs
Holon Yermiyahu
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 9/30/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Holon Yermiyahu · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Maccabi Ashdod 2-0 Holon Yermiyahu
Original prediction
Holon Yermiyahu
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.90 | 30.9% | 33.8% | 3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 27.8% | 28.2% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 41.3% | 38.0% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Holon Yermiyahu
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Holon Yermiyahu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60