Maccabi Ahi Nazarethvs
Hapoel Kfar Saba
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Leumit · 10/16/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 0-4 Hapoel Kfar Saba
Original prediction
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.41 | 37.2% | 53.6% | 16.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.1% | 22.4% | -4.7 pts |
| Away | 2.51 | 35.7% | 24.0% | -11.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Probability
53.6%
Model confidence
53.6%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40