Macarthurvs
Perth Glory
COMPLETEDAustralia · A-League · 10/17/2026, 6:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Macarthur · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Macarthur 2-1 Perth Glory
Original prediction
Macarthur
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 48.4% | 41.2% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 25.5% | 27.3% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.59 | 26.1% | 31.5% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.94 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Macarthur
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Macarthur has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00