Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Macara are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Tigre are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Macara hold a 9.4-point power-rating edge (63.1 v 53.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.4% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 18% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80