Liga Pro
Macara
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Mushuc Runa SC
AwayThe model projects 1.49 xG for Macara and 1.21 xG for Mushuc Runa SC. Mushuc Runa SC's projected xG of 1.21 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 1-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.Macara's Defensive Stability Score (86) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (73). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.
The model projects a combined xG of 2.71 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.
Momentum trend
last 5 matchesMacaraMushuc Runa SCProbability breakdown
Macara leads with 55% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Macara Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0
Macara take on Mushuc Runa SC in Liga Pro.
Key factors
Why GoalVio backs this
Macara's Defensive Stability Score of 86 is significantly higher than Mushuc Runa SC's 27. A team that concedes fewer high-quality chances controls games differently — they force opponents into lower-probability situations and reduce the variance in results. That defensive solidity is the clearest structural reason the model backs Macara here.
Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Macara, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Mushuc Runa SC score first, the game becomes genuinely open.
Risk factors
- ⚠The xG gap is narrow at 0.28 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
- ⚠Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
- ⚠The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.
Head to head
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Macara
Mushuc Runa SC
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Macara vs Mushuc Runa SC?
GoalVio's model predicts Macara to win with 55% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Macara vs Mushuc Runa SC?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.
Will both teams score in Macara vs Mushuc Runa SC?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Macara vs Mushuc Runa SC?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.