Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Macara · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Macara 1-0 Manta FC, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Macara 4-3 Manta FC
Original prediction
Macara
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 63.4% | 63.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 23.0% | 24.8% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 6.73 | 13.6% | 11.9% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.2 pts
Projected Score
Macara 1–0 Manta FC
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Macara
Probability
63.2%
Model confidence
63.2%
Macara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MacaraWLDDL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Manta FCWLLWL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MacaraManta FC
43.2Attack17.3
66.7Defence54.3
55.6Form24.7
56.3Power34.9
1.35xG0.43