Macaravs
Independiente del Valle
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro · 10/17/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente del Valle · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Macara 1-0 Independiente del Valle
Original prediction
Independiente del Valle
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.12 | 22.4% | 24.3% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.7% | 24.8% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 50.0% | 50.9% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Independiente del Valle
Probability
50.9%
Model confidence
50.9%
Independiente del Valle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20